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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.